There are many great match-ups in rugby but nothing quite gets the pulses racing than this encounter between two absolute behemoths of the sport.
It is a rivalry which stretches back over a century with New Zealand edging the contest, claiming 62 wins to their opponents’ 40. It shows that in a sport in which the All Blacks have dominated over the years, the Springboks have been their closest rivals.
Between them they have won seven of the 10 Rugby World Cups – New Zealand three and South Africa four – and of course their last confrontation came in that famous final in 2023.
Saturday’s Rugby Championship clash in Johannesburg marks their first meeting since the Boks triumphed 12-11 in France, securing them back-to-back titles.
No doubt revenge is the order of the day for the visitors, despite beginning a new era under head coach Scott Robertson. Plenty of players who were involved 10 months ago also feature this weekend and it will be particularly poignant for Sam Cane.
The flanker, who at the time was captain of the All Blacks, was sent off in the first half of the showpiece event and this could act as a sort of redemption for the openside. Nothing will ever really take away the pain of that loss, but victories in the next two weeks will at least provide some comfort for Cane.
Whether they are able to topple the Springboks in their own backyard is the question, however. While New Zealand are still finding their rhythm under Robertson, South Africa have, if anything, developed following that final in 2023.
We wouldn’t necessarily say Rassie Erasmus’ men are better than last year but they are definitely different, bringing more of an attacking approach to proceedings thanks to the influence of new coach Tony Brown. That, combined with the forward power they still possess, makes the Boks the team to beat in the Rugby Championship.
No one ever goes into a match with the All Blacks as overwhelming favourites, but this is as close as any team will be to claiming that tag. Erasmus will be wary, though, as the Boks faced a similar situation going into an Ellis Park Test two years ago and everyone knows what happened then…
Where the game will be won
When facing the Springboks, it is first of all a matter of trying to negate the set-piece, something the All Blacks did very effectively in the 2023 World Cup final. The scrum has become a weapon for New Zealand over the past couple of years, so it will be a fascinating battle between the tight fives. However, what could tip the scales the visitors’ way is the lock crisis that South Africa have endured this year.
Fortunately for the Boks, Eben Etzebeth is fit enough for the bench, but they have been forced into naming a makeshift lock pairing. It must be said that the All Blacks’ second-row stocks are hardly top of the range either – mainly due to the departures of Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick – but they at least have captain Scott Barrett back after injury. That could affect both scrum and lineout, but we still can’t quite predict who will get the upper hand in this area.
Whoever does get on the front foot makes the job much easier for the decision-makers, which will prove to be another interesting duel. After struggling in Wellington, TJ Perenara, Damian McKenzie and Beauden Barrett were much better at Eden Park. They changed it up by taking the pressure off Perenara’s box-kicking, which has been poor this year, and getting McKenzie and Barrett to send it deep to the Argentinian back three.
That worked well in atrocious conditions in Auckland and, with them playing at altitude this weekend, it could prove to be a beneficial tactic in Johannesburg, but they have to be wary of the Springboks counter-attack. South Africa have omitted Willie le Roux, which might reduce their effectiveness in phase play, but Aphelele Fassi provides more threat in broken field. That, combined with the running talent of wings Kurt-Lee Arendse and Cheslin Kolbe, may force the All Blacks to rethink their kicking strategy.
Last time they met
What they said
Springboks boss Erasmus insists that they will certainly not be underestimating the All Blacks despite their opponents’ mixed performances in 2024.
“No, we’ll be stupid if we don’t respect them,” he said.
“We’ll be bad coaches, we’ll be stupid players, we’ll be an arrogant nation, we’ll quickly be put back in our place. At number six or seven in the rankings which is where we started.
“It’s a team that beat England at home, it’s a team that lost to Argentina, but we’ve lost to Argentina. We beat them only by one point in the World Cup.”
Robertson took over as New Zealand head coach after the 2023 Rugby World Cup and Erasmus gave significant praise to the 50-year-old.
“I just think people must understand that Razor is a fantastic coach, and he might be the best coach in the world,” he added.
Erasmus and Robertson know each other well having played in the same era and the All Blacks boss revealed what their relationship is like.
“We’ve shared a few beers and a few stories after the games over the years. We just have a good little rapport that you’re sort of connected in,” Robertson told reporters.
The former Crusaders head coach also spoke about the threats the Springboks will pose during the clash in Johannesburg.
“They’ve got a clear DNA, South Africa. They’ve been pretty innovative and have evolved really well in the last few games, so that’s the exciting part,” he added.
“You get to see enough of them in Test footy and you see how [Erasmus’] mind works. He’s pretty special. They’ve got a great group there, so they’re going to be a great Test matches.”
Players to watch
There was much talk around Ox Nche being moved to the bench, with the inexperienced Gerhard Steenekamp potentially getting a chance to start, but in the end the surprise selection proved to be Aphelele Fassi. The full-back starred against the Wallabies in the second round of the Rugby Championship and he has been chosen ahead of Le Roux for this clash. Fassi has been solid under the high ball this year, but he will also add a real threat off counter-attack.
The speedster will also have to aid youngster Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, who will have little playmaking help around him. Le Roux has in the past significantly improved the Boks attack when selected and his absence puts more pressure on Feinberg-Mngomezulu, but there is something special about the 22-year-old. He already looks a top-class operator thanks to his poise, creativity and accuracy off the tee, but the challenge will be significantly harder this weekend.
He comes up against Damian McKenzie and Beauden Barrett, who combined superbly against Argentina. It wasn’t just their brilliance with ball in hand, something we’ve become accustomed to over the years, but their ability to place the ball in the perfect spot off the boot. They pulled the Argentinian backfield completely out of position in Auckland and that allowed the All Blacks to get into the opposition half where their running threats punched holes in the defence.
New Zealand were also strong up front, especially in the scrum, as the inexperienced Tamaiti Williams dominated. The loosehead was exceptional against Los Pumas and he will have to build on that going into this weekend’s encounter. South Africa will no doubt target the set-piece but Williams, alongside fellow prop Tyrel Lomax, will have to stay strong like they did in the World Cup final last year.
Codie Taylor also has a big role to play in the set-piece. He has endured his lineout wobbles this year but at least he doesn’t have to contend with the likes of RG Snyman, Lood de Jager and Franco Mostert this weekend. Instead, it will be Bulls lock Ruan Nortje, who gets his chance in the engine room. Nortje is a fine player, but the visitors will look to take advantage of the Boks’ makeshift second-row.
Finally, watch out for the respective benches. The ‘Bomb Squad’ has become a key part of South Africa’s armoury and this week they have a certain Etzebeth among the reserves after he picked up a minor knee injury. The lock and his fellow replacements will seek to play a key part in the second period against an All Blacks bench that hasn’t been quite as effective this year. It could ultimately decide the result.
Main head-to-head
Speaking of locks, it is where we think the key battle will take place. Even for someone as good as Pieter-Steph du Toit, moving into the front five will be a challenge. It should not affect his game in the loose, where he will do the same job as usual, but in terms of the set-piece, he has to provide able support for the front-row and then be a primary option in the lineout. The latter should be easier, given that he is already a key jumper, but the fact that it is a new unit – with the inexperienced Nortje and Ben-Jason Dixon in situ – could complicate matters.
As a result, captain Scott Barrett will hope to put pressure on the hosts. The return of the skipper from injury is a big boost for the All Blacks, who very much missed his presence in Wellington. Although his team-mates hit back superbly at Eden Park, we doubt they stand a chance of winning this game without Barrett. In the tight, the 30-year-old has become a superb set-piece operator, both as a scrummager and in the lineout, while he puts himself about in the loose, thanks to his ability to carry and counter-ruck.
Prediction
South Africa’s second-row issues have certainly made this encounter more difficult to call and it will ultimately come down to how that back five knits together. However, they do have Eben Etzebeth in reserve should they need to make a change early. As for the All Blacks, they should never be discounted, but are they quite good enough at the moment to beat Erasmus’ men at Ellis Park? We’re not so sure. There won’t be much between them but the hosts’ bench could well be the difference. Springboks by 10 points.
Previous results
2023: South Africa won 12-11 in Saint-Denis
2023: South Africa won 35-7 in London
2023: New Zealand won 35-20 in Auckland
2022: New Zealand won 35-23 in Johannesburg
2022: South Africa won 26-10 in Mbombela
2021: South Africa won 31-29 on the Gold Coast
2021: New Zealand won 19-17 in Townsville
2019: New Zealand won 23-13 in Yokohama
2019: New Zealand and South Africa drew 16-16 in Wellington
2018: New Zealand won 32-30 in Pretoria
The teams
All Blacks: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tamaiti Williams
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Samipeni Finau, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Mark Tele’a
Springboks: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Handre Pollard
Date: Saturday, August 31
Venue: Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg
Kick-off: 17:00 local (16:00 BST, 15:00 GMT, 03:00 NZST)
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (England), Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: Brian MacNeice (Ireland)
READ MORE: Springboks v All Blacks: Four key storylines to follow as ‘set-piece war’ to ensue at Ellis Park