The 2024 PGA Tour season will culminate at East Lake Golf Club this week for the Tour Championship.
The top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will compete for the $25 million first prize. You can read my full betting preview for the event here. Along with my weekly betting preview, I usually also predict the final score for the top 10 golfers. With the Tour Championship’s format, it’s going to make things a little more tricky considering each player will start a certain amount of strokes under par based on where they finished in the standings.
Even with that being the case, I’m going to do my best to put my predictions to the test. Let’s dive into my final score predictions for the top 10 golfers on the odds list this week.
All odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook
Winning score: -22
We have a pretty good idea of what the winning score will be at East Lake this week. In the five years that the event has used the new scoring format, the winner has finished at 21 under par. Last year’s winner, Viktor Hovland, finished at 27 under par but that score was a bit of an anomaly, beating the second-place golfer by five strokes.
I’m going to predict the winning score goes one stroke deeper than the -21 mark we’ve seen three of the past five years.
For the third year in a row, Scottie Scheffler will enter the Tour Championship in first place, giving himself a lead on the rest of the field. He failed to deliver both in 2022 and 2023 and will feel the pressure of those two events when he tries to win at East Lake for the first time. I think he’ll fall short once again.
If you read my betting preview, you know that I’m picking Xander Schauffele to win this week. Not only has he been the clear No. 2 golfer on the PGA Tour this season, but he has had a fantastic history at East Lake. He finished with the low gross score in both 2020 and 2023 and has never finished outside the top seven. Now is his chance to make one final argument of being the Golfer of the Year ahead of Scheffler.
Hideki Matsuyama has never had a strong showing at East Lake and now he’s coming into the event with an injury that caused him to withdraw from last week’s BMW Championship. I have little to no hope that he’ll be in contention on the weekend.
Rory McIlroy has had some great showings at the Tour Championship, including winning it twice under the new format. With that being said, he’s coming into this week in poor form, finishing 68 at the FedEx St. Jude and T11 at last week’s BMW Championship. He needs the season to end so he can regroup and return next year with a clear mind.
Ludvig Åberg will be making his career debut at East Lake, which is going to work against him this week. Despite posting a runner-up finish last week, East Lake isn’t going to play to his strength as much as Castle Pines did. It’s been an impressive season for the young Swede, but he’s one golfer I’m staying away from this week.
Collin Morikawa is another golfer who is coming into this week’s event in sub-optimal form, finishing outside the top 20 in three straight starts and outside the top 15 in four straight starts. The winner of the Tour Championship is more often than not the golfer who is in the best form and is within striking distance of the leader. Morikawa is not that guy this time around.
I have more faith in Keegan Bradley this week than most people. Last week’s win vaulted him up to No. 4 in the standings, meaning he’ll be just four strokes back from Scheffler when he tees off on Thursday. He’s a veteran golfer with plenty of experience, including finishing with the 11th best gross score at East Lake last season. Based on his recent form, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in the mix on the weekend.
Patrick Cantlay has won the Tour Championship once already in his career and he’s finished inside the top seven in gross score at East Lake in three straight years. He’s also posted two straight top 15 finishes heading into this week. He’s my pick to be the runner-up to Schauffele this week.
Wyndham Clark has been a tough golfer to handicap this season. When he’s on, he contends, but his floor is so low that he may leave you pulling out your hair by Sunday. Thankfully, he’s in solid form heading into this week finishing inside the top 14 in his last three starts. It’s also worth noting he finished with the third best gross score last year in his East Lake debut.
Sam Burns is getting hot. He has posted two straight top-five finishes including a runner-up finish at last week’s BMW Championship. He also finished with the fourth-best gross score at East Lake last year. He’ll have his work cut out for him to catch the leaders. He’ll start the event at -4, six shots back from Scheffler.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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